Monthly Archives: May 2012

Very superstitious Part 2

Didn’t I tell you? If you read my post entitled “Very Superstitious” you would understand what happened in the markets today. I knew that if I spoke of oil rebounding, it would then fall. I should have kept my mouth shut, but I risked it for your entertainment.

Not 24 hours after I stated that the tensions with Iran would raise oil prices, a Iranian Navy ship helps an American commercial vessel to escape pirates. Now that public sentiment might turn(highly unlikely with the warmongering media) oil has fallen, after about 2 straight days of gain. When I say oil, I mean oil related etfs that I trade.

Watching BBC world news yesterday it appears Hugo Chaves is back in good health so the potential of him being ousted by the other guy is somewhat diminished. So there is still some fear out there, and enough to keep prices up there. Like I said previously Venezuela provides 11% of our oil. If the western leaning new guy in Venezuela even looks like he has a chance, oil companies will be licking their chops while investors loose their shirts with the new gained access to the reserves bringing prices down.

Looking at history we see that there is always war, because its profitable. In a world where the market has expanded to the point where there is nowhere to go, and all the money is less valuable, and EU nations shirk their agreements(Greece I’m talking about you), you have to start over. One way to start over is to just have a big war. Start from scratch, and that is how you make money. By building. so you spend money to destroy so you can make money on the rebuilding. The stock market is essentially a microcosm of the world, the universe even. Nothing goes to waste, things only change concentration.

Very superstitious

I saw Stevie Wonder on television the other day. He has a catchy a tune called “Superstitious.” That title sums up why I have been hesitant to post a new entry. It is understandable that I would be superstitious as any gambling addict would be.

I come from a environment where if you say things are getting better, you effectively just reversed whatever gains have been made by stating such. Better to keep it to yourself and don’t speak so soon. This would make it difficult to write a blog about investing. So ladies and gentlemen for tonights entertainment I will risk lucre and limb to tell you that oil will be going up again.

There is essentially one reason, that reason is Iran. The west will begin its sanctions in July of this year. Also, according to a Bloomberg article an Iranian official expected oil prices to double this summer. Just in time for the vacation season. Another observation I have made came from loosing 20% of my oil portfolio in the last month and seeing that loss reduced to around 15% in two days. Current trends persisting I will be even by this time next week. So if you are a fellow gambler and have something to wager, put it on domestic oil and hold until the first week of the embargo.

Frankly the embargo is a money making opportunity as the west will attack Iran, no matter what they do. The only events that could prevent oil from rising in July is if the debt ridden Euro-zone stops buying, or OPEC members decide to increase production. Oh! Also, Hugo Chaves is ill and the internet is buzzing about an opposition candidate. Venezuela provides something to the effect of 11% of our oil. So there you have it. Turmoil in Iran and Venezuela make it prime time to grab some cheap oil stocks.

Hey, if my superstition works the way it should, there will be no embargo, no war and no overthrow. A lot of lives will be saved.

Portfolio Haiku

i lost my money
this is a great misfortune
i am addicted

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