Monthly Archives: January 2017

Mom and Pop pop

I wrote yesterday about commercial real estate is headed downhill. Today I saw a blurb for an article by NYU Stern saying Amazon is killing location New York shop owners. So my thinking we could say is in line with that of NYU, but this is nothing new.

The transfer of consumables and household items from storefront to online is a threat but there is hope in the services industry. As people can’t get thier haircare, childcare, medical care or any human or animal body work in a box. Additionally car repair (those who still have them), home repair(those who still have them), police, fireman, politicians and municipal services.

So the world as we know it will change and retail stores will diminish. People will still need last minute outfits that make them look good. As long as looking good or attracting a mate is a thing. Until that is deemed descriminatory or offensive.

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State of real

Reading a Bloomberg article this morning regarding commercial property landlord debt, coupled with the ongoing environment of shrinking of brick and mortar stores including Walmart, Macy’s and many others. I do not expect commercial real estate to do anything but become devalued. There will be more warehousing needed but less retail space. With the “now” or “just in time” economy and the on demand delivery of consumables, who needs a retail store, market or local walk-in customer service location? Additionally if the Obamacare Tax is repealed the insurance companies and proportionally the hospital’s will have to tighten thier belts and scale back thier campus sizes. I expect that warehousing and personal storage facilities will be growth areas.

With the government leaning towards domestic manufacturing the shipping companies such as Hanjin and Maersk will continue to suffer. Unless they find other markets to and from Asia. This will be a great opportunity for developing nations to negotiate lower prices for goods America will no longer accept. Still thier consumption will not compensate fully for the US market that they will loose.

In conclusion, commercial real estate sucks with the exception of warehousing. Also, though I did not discuss, residential properties will continue to do well because the investors running away from commercial rentals will take thier dollars to the residential market.

Get back to work.

I don’t consider myself a right wing person. I would consider mystelf a conservative. I believe in conserving the environment, energy and money Also I believe in preserving certain cultural behaviors dealing with harmonious human interaction. Unfortunately the word conservative in America doesn’t convey such warm feelings. It is interpreted as an adverserial and antagonist way of thinking. Understandably the political conservatives historically have been against environmental conservation, energy conservation and fiscal conservation in thier massive defense spending. I’m just stating what most people think, I am not bashing conservatives.

I’m writing now to discuss and even applaud the new Trump administration’s job creation. I believe the president has done a good job even before his first day in saving jobs here by putting fear into manufacturers. This should be applauded unless you like having people dependent upon the state which results in increased texes. The government has to get that money from somewhere. It’s like osmosis.

There has been a good amount of discuss regarding labor. Heath insurance, minimum wage, unions, guaranteed minimum income, helicopter money, right to work, worker cooperatives and more. I’m only choosing to write about my limited understanding of right to work states. My assumptions are they are usually Red States, anti-union, anti-minimum wage and pro corporate tax breaks. All qualities attractive to companies seeking to outsource within the domestic United States. The current president is making it hard to outsource labor outside of the US so I expect that there will be a hot potatoe game of corporations relocating to these states. According to google the list of states are as follows:

Alabama,Arizona, Arkansas, Kansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi,Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dhhakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Though these states are attractive to colorations they are also some of the most debt laden and suck from the federal government. Unlike worker friendly blue  states that contribute to the Federal government coffers.

In the short term there will be an influx of growth due to the things I just mentioned in addition to lowered environmental regulations and promotion of gas/oil exploration. In the long term the tax deferring will cause deficits, the oil will dry up and the earth/air/water will be polluted.

It will be profitable buy stocks in utilities from now until I assume end of 2018/2019. Barring a weather event or other man made devastation economic or physical. That is when all the speculation will be taking place. We have already seen a lot of speculation since November 2 2016 that business will prosper under the current president. But there are still many late coming suckers/speculators that will help to boost the price of shares in the next maybe 24 months.

So lets get back to work, in the oil fields, in the coal mines, in the automotive factories and without healthcare, without a minimum wage, without union protection. Hey at least we’re working right?