Category Archives: specilation

Downtime

In my last post, no, the one before that. I stated I’m getting out of playing with stocks. So far I have been able to stay clean for the past month. Trading is akin to gambling addiction.

In other news I saw a blurb of an article online stating that the old convention of having traders on the floor of one of the exchanges will be going away. I am surprised it didn’t go away sooner. The internet and technology has killed another set of jobs and we financed it. Soon enough with the development of what will be the next best thing to artificial intelligence we will all be out of a job. I stopped using automatic checkouts 2 years ago. If you replace low skill, low wage jobs with machines, what will the HS drop-outs have to do except lean on the system. Is that what we want? To replace people with machines, put them on public assistance and leave the burden of generating the money to a few? Smart people are stupid.

Reading an FT article today it appears the economy is not growing as much as it should be. People are not consuming as much as expected. Its in my opinion that the country is collectively emotionally depressed. In my opinion somewhat depressed people go out and buy food, drink, drugs or electronics to feel better. The severely depressed don’t leave their homes, they don’t go on dates, wash their cars, have dinner out, buy electronic gadgets,condoms, penicillin…. they don’t spend(if they have an income). The doom of the economic crisis, war, revolution, job security, government spying, erosion of civil liberties, celebrity deaths, everyday life and just plain bad news has sucked the mojo out of the people. We need some goos news, we need to get the peoples mojo going. YEAH BABY!! Unless this happens were going to see more angry depressed losers doing acts of violence to themselves and others. Get the low wage jobs back. Smash some of these computers. Give ore positive economic forecasts, and if you have nothing good to say shut up. Stop grabbing nuts at the airport so people can take trips and come here for vacation. Lets have some fun music like BeachBoys or bring back Disco. Get rid of sucky movies like Twilight, more movies like Airplane and Spaceballs. Cut out online dating and bring the hermits out of their houses and back into the economy. No more hermits, no more hermits, no more hermits……..

Very superstitious Part 2

Didn’t I tell you? If you read my post entitled “Very Superstitious” you would understand what happened in the markets today. I knew that if I spoke of oil rebounding, it would then fall. I should have kept my mouth shut, but I risked it for your entertainment.

Not 24 hours after I stated that the tensions with Iran would raise oil prices, a Iranian Navy ship helps an American commercial vessel to escape pirates. Now that public sentiment might turn(highly unlikely with the warmongering media) oil has fallen, after about 2 straight days of gain. When I say oil, I mean oil related etfs that I trade.

Watching BBC world news yesterday it appears Hugo Chaves is back in good health so the potential of him being ousted by the other guy is somewhat diminished. So there is still some fear out there, and enough to keep prices up there. Like I said previously Venezuela provides 11% of our oil. If the western leaning new guy in Venezuela even looks like he has a chance, oil companies will be licking their chops while investors loose their shirts with the new gained access to the reserves bringing prices down.

Looking at history we see that there is always war, because its profitable. In a world where the market has expanded to the point where there is nowhere to go, and all the money is less valuable, and EU nations shirk their agreements(Greece I’m talking about you), you have to start over. One way to start over is to just have a big war. Start from scratch, and that is how you make money. By building. so you spend money to destroy so you can make money on the rebuilding. The stock market is essentially a microcosm of the world, the universe even. Nothing goes to waste, things only change concentration.

Very superstitious

I saw Stevie Wonder on television the other day. He has a catchy a tune called “Superstitious.” That title sums up why I have been hesitant to post a new entry. It is understandable that I would be superstitious as any gambling addict would be.

I come from a environment where if you say things are getting better, you effectively just reversed whatever gains have been made by stating such. Better to keep it to yourself and don’t speak so soon. This would make it difficult to write a blog about investing. So ladies and gentlemen for tonights entertainment I will risk lucre and limb to tell you that oil will be going up again.

There is essentially one reason, that reason is Iran. The west will begin its sanctions in July of this year. Also, according to a Bloomberg article an Iranian official expected oil prices to double this summer. Just in time for the vacation season. Another observation I have made came from loosing 20% of my oil portfolio in the last month and seeing that loss reduced to around 15% in two days. Current trends persisting I will be even by this time next week. So if you are a fellow gambler and have something to wager, put it on domestic oil and hold until the first week of the embargo.

Frankly the embargo is a money making opportunity as the west will attack Iran, no matter what they do. The only events that could prevent oil from rising in July is if the debt ridden Euro-zone stops buying, or OPEC members decide to increase production. Oh! Also, Hugo Chaves is ill and the internet is buzzing about an opposition candidate. Venezuela provides something to the effect of 11% of our oil. So there you have it. Turmoil in Iran and Venezuela make it prime time to grab some cheap oil stocks.

Hey, if my superstition works the way it should, there will be no embargo, no war and no overthrow. A lot of lives will be saved.

Doom and gloom

What does the word gloom mean anyways. Sounds like fun to me. Gloom sounds like glow or glee. Anyways The stock market went bunji jumping this week. I didn’t buy on Monday as the’re was no good news. I didn’t buy on Tuesday because that wasn’t any better. I bought on Wednesday and by evening I was doing well. On Thursday I was kicking myself. Now today, Friday I am still kicking myself. I decided to buy on Wednesday while the two financial heads of the whole country were in a rare occasion together testifying before congress, causing everyone to run for them there hills. I failed to keep up to date on current events. If I knew those two were going to be speaking I would have waited until Thursday or even next week.

Other than Heckle and Jekyl speaking before Congress, the writers at Bloomberg used their influence to cloud men’s minds. One hour they said the housing market is down. Then the housing market eh, not so bad. Then its terrible. Then is great. I couldn’t make heads or tails of it. Bloomberg has to do better as one of the favored sources for financial news.

At the end of the day, I have no one to blame. I should have known Geitner and Bernanke would be speaking. I stepped out of my energy comfort zone this week and played with: CHLN, IOT, PEIX, ROIAK, VVTV. A mix of advertising, energy and housing(in China). Next week if things turn around I have a strong interest in GLGL and FCEL. The former is a producer of a natural sweetener that diabetics can use, the latter a Connecticut maker of fuel cells that run on gas(tre cool).

There is still some lucrative news. Israel has determined they can strike Iran without much blowback. I paid $4.05 for gas yesterday so I will probably revisit my domestic oil drilling companies WRES, GBR and PSTR. With sanctions getting tighter and the dogs of war rabidly foaming at the mouth, domestic fuel producers will get a lot of interest. See you at the crap table.

Oh, Me of little faith

I have been really quiet the past few days. Lost a lot of money. My forcasting seems flawed right now. I’ll be the first to turn tail on my own strategy, not! I’m still in a holding pattern. This morning I got some lucrative news. Benyamin NetanYooohoo is coming to town to give the US president his orders on how to proceed regarding Iran. Days before the president made a speech to a zi0nis7 organization, assuring them that hes not a wimp when it comes to war, only a wimp for their special interest(s). So I expect all my domestic petroleum and natural gas stocks to go up again, after a disappointing week.

Additionally CNN Money released an article reflecting my current investment strategy. See the article here: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2012/markets/1203/gallery.oil-gas-investments/index.html

Though my stock picks are not popular brand names, they are cheap, so investors will find them. I expect Mr. NetanYoohoo to drum up support for killing people and the president will  be “in lockstep” with whatever he is told to do. During that time I hope to buy some additional domestic oil stocks and cash out with at least a 20% return. I only wanted to hold the shares for a week, but Ben Bernanke had other plans, and caused them to tank. So I’ll just have to wait out the warmongers’ posturing.

Its funny, last week one guy named Ben made me loose money and this week a guy named Ben is going to make me money. The balance is restored.

In other news the government is not going to only make the foreclosure process easier its going to give a financial hand to the bulk property buyers. You know, the guys who fix the prices, so that regular folks cant afford housing. So I expect like I mention before a rebound in the financials. The will provide these bulk buyers with the buying power while people who want to buy a house will be taking out bigger loans. These rundown abandoned and cheap houses will need repair so expect a raise in home depot, lowes and ace hardware. Those shares maybe pricey so its best to find a supplier’s stock. Best if the supplier provides good for all three companies. This winter has been extra nice, so winter supplies sales were probably poor. Lets say maybe a %5 at least, jump in the value of those companies between today and the 1st day of spring, better yet, by April 15th.

Petit doomsday

Today the Federal Reserve chairman opened his mouth and threw a fly in the ointment. Come on, even gold lost value. Gold is the doomsday, fear-mongers’ favorite thing to buy. The more people are scared the more money they make on gold. I cant afford gold shares so I’m more of a gas shortage fear-monger. Even though the CIA has said Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, the media keeps saying that they are. Who listens to politicians anyway, unless they’ve been caught in some kinda scandal. I digress.

My picks earlier this week all flopped, I lost a good hunk a change but, I expect fear of Iran and the heightening of travel to bring me to where I want to be. I learned a lot this week. Gained some gray hairs, but I’m sticking to my guns and riding the wave. I’m down now, but tomorrow is another day.

As I said yesterday housing is going to rebound. Not for the regular guy but for the banks, developers and property managers. There was an article on MSN condemning Zillow.com. I see that as counter intelligence  to discourage the regualr guy from grabbing up the cheap houses on the market. There’s nothing wring with Zillow or Trulia, but someone got paid to say so, and of course the comment trolls and mercenaries followed in kind. LOAN lost $0.03 since my suggestion. PSTR and WRES both involved in crude and NG exploration fell almost $0.25 each. So I’m riding the wave until the news of high gas prices comes back around. Misery loves company so though I am disappointed in my pics, I wasn’t the only one who got soaked. Most people were too distracted by the Oscars this week and whatever else was going on TMZ/Extra to be afraid of gas prices.

I’m going to see if this video from Bloomberg will embed. If it does see below……………didn’t work so just clack the link below.

http://bloom.bg/zdOlcO#ooid=huY3VtMzppbeKWhQRafFRiJnrU0xB-e2

Growing up, Bloomberg’s Portfolio Tracker and MarketWatch’s VSE

When I was in elementary school in the early 90s our class participated in the Stock Exchange Game. At the time I found it boring and another thing to learn that I would never use. I have the certificate of participation somewhere around here.

Later in High School we played the gave again briefly. Using the NY times to monitor our stock pics and learning about what the symbols meant. I didn’t pay it any more attention in high school than I did in elementary. Many moons later in college I again participated in a stock exchange competition, which had a price of $100. This is where I actually had some interest as there was some money motivation. We used a web site called Virtual Stock Exchange, which is a part of MarketWatch.com. Out of the maybe 30 participants I think I cane around 7th, so I didn’t win the 100 bucks but I suppose the intent was to just get us familiar.

Currently, as you can see by the existence of this blog, I have become more interested in the market.  It’s not a game now as the money isn’t virtual, its my money. Not not a especially good time to learn from scratch, but it would seem that life has lead me to this point. I have really been playing this game since elementary school.

I logged into my old VSE account and use it to monitor my stocks, as the site I use to actually do trading is basic. No information on volume, P/E, no charts(only a pie chart). Its basically design for a investor that does not plan on making multiple trades, and isn’t constantly monitoring the values. So moving to another service is something I am in the process of doing.

In the mean time I have found VSE useful and also Bloomberg Portfolio Tracker. VSE gives all the information you need, but Bloomberg gives the same and additional features such as the ability to draw trend lines. You may be saying, [well I already have that]. Thats fine, but its news to this writer. Using trend lines doesn’t conform to my philosophy of monitoring the news and current events but if your dealing with a stock that exists in some kind of vacuum I suppose a trend line would be a good crystal ball. I find the trendlines useful when combined with the monitoring of current events. As a result I have downgraded my expectations for WRES, PSTR, and LOAN to $4.15, $4.20, and $1.18 respectively. Comparing to the values on the days I made the suggestions that would result in a gain of $0.25, a loss of $-0.09 and a gain of $0.05 respectively. Since warren Buffet recently fessed up to his poor reading of the ouija board, I guess I can fess up too. Still, if holding equal numbers of shares in the three aforementioned stocks, that would give a profit of $0.0833 average per share. Which is nothing to write home about but a W is a W.

Below is a screenshot of Bloomberg Portfolio Tracker:

Financials

Back in January 2012 when Greece was discovered as a country and not as a movie starring John Travolta, I set my sights on NBG(National Bank of Greece). At the time the stock was approximately $2. Now the bank of a country cannot go out of business, that would be crazy, and the world financial entities were working hard to stave off such an event anyways. So by mud February the stock had gone to approximately $3. Among all the bad news investors saw that the hype surrounding the stock and the fact that the survival of the Euro would depend on the saving of the Greek financial system, would bring funding. So money was pumped into Greece and austerity measures were implemented to increase the confidence of lenders. S there you have it. Unfortunately I was cowardice and sold the stock before it turned a profit. That was a learning experience.

Now I suspect that financials will rise again. Though the housing industry is bad news, sales are up for January. That means more people are taking advantage of low interest rates and low home prices. The recent settlement between the US government and the banks regarding foreclosures is expediting the foreclosure process and will put many more homes on the market. So there will be a lot of activity and of course a lot of borrowing. Through out the housing bust there was one place that had a steady growth. Brooklyn USA. Brooklyn has been growing in residential and commercial real estate. Its the new Manhattan, but a little cheaper(for now). Today I discovered the stock symbol LOAN. This company provides short term loans to businesses, especially in the real estate industry. The company is based in Manhattan but has a Long Island phone number.  The current price is $1.13. This stock I expect to go up to at least $1.30 in the spring when developers want to do renovations or the love in the air convinces people to buy up the cheap houses  now on the market. Then again everyone is afraid as a result of the fear-mongering by politicians,  media and movers and shakers in general. So putting down roots appears a risky undertaking for some.  LOAN provides loans to businesses, and business people are risk takers by nature. Still, considering the real estate developer and the buyer LOAN is a safe bet to rise to $1.25. So a profit can still be made. At less than $2 this is a hard one to pas up.

Stock Picks for February 27 2012

Everyone is ranting and raving about a pending increase in the price of gasoline. Even those of us that do not own vehicles. This frenzy has caused the hawks to swarm in. Before the bubble pops, and while the fear is fresh its time to invest. Wisely. Recent foreign policy decisions have come back to bite us in the nether regions. But just because politicians appear foolish doesn’t mean they are. The more enemies we create the more chance there is to make money. Now let me cut straight to it. For the week of Monday February 27th the following stock are smart to hold until Friday. GBR, WRES, PSTR. All are related to domestic crude oil exploration. Now that we are not friends with certain nations it will be the responsibility of domestic oil companies to provide the black gold. Al the aformentioned stocks are below $5 and since the news of gas price increases have increased as much as 64%!!! This may or may not last but another week of panic should be a safe bet. So if you can afford it get a lot of these, hold until Thursday or Friday and dump them. There both hovering around $4. Dont expect to get to $5 in a week. Make 10 to 20 cents and get out. If your a person that likes to skydive and bunji jump maybe you hold out for 35 or 40 cents.

See the performance of the aformentoned stocks on Google Finance.

See the state of mind of the consumers(investors also) on Google Trends.


For a summary of how I make my stock picks see the about page
HERE.

John’s Stock Tips

There are two sites which I prefer to use when speculating on stocks. The sites are as follows:

Google Stock Screener: http://www.google.com/finance#stockscreener

Yahoo Stock Screener: http://screener.finance.yahoo.com/stocks.html

I have limited funding so I set my sights on stocks lower than $3 and higher than $1. Usually stocks in that range cannot risk going lower as the will be delisted from the NYSE. Also, stocks lower than $1 incur extra charges by some trading sites whaih make them more of a problem than a earning opportunity.

I am not particularly concerned weather a stock pays dividends as I don’t plan on holding it for more than a week if it is profitable. If the stock looses value I usually ride out the wave until I break even and can get out.

Aside from the price he P/E ratio is important as it will depict how the stock has been performing relative to its price. I like this number to be high but not unrealistic. A P/E ratio of between 5 to 20% is fairly realistic for stocks with values under $3.

The stock chart is the visual and easiest to understand, indicator of things to come. I prefer to view charts on Google.com/finance or on ETRADE.com. Google finance is convenient for looking up stocks that may be on various exchanges(NYSE, PINK, OTC…). While ETRADE provides more relevant news on the specific company.

At times you may find a stock out of your price range. BizShark.com is a useful resource in determining the companies competitors. It may not be the company you want bid its the same industry.

Looking at the stock chart, you should expand the view to at least 5 years. If the stock belongs to a market that is seasonal, such as travel, clothing, fruits, back to school, thanksgiving, Christmas etc. the season must be observed over a few years to determine how the stock is expected to perform in the coming season. Therefore you can make a purchase off season and sell at peak season.

More important than using a stock screener or a chart is to keep your ears and eyes open for news pertaining to the industry the stock belongs to. You have to keep informed of weather  there is a legal, legislative, public relations, employee relations, weather condition etc.  that may affect the consumers choice to buy.  The more buzz there is in the consciousness of the people the more the stock will fluctuate. Its like the butterfly effect, everything is connected, and you must view everything as such.

If you like gambling, the stock market is the safest place to do it. You may loose your shirt but then again you might make some money. If you do thorough research you can just about predict what will happen. This will call for you to be well informed. Calculated risk, is a oxymoron but I dont think anyone wold consider wall street millionaires any kind of moron.