Category Archives: trading

The house wins when good men fail to act

It’s an understatement but I am timid to enter the market considering the last few months have been a race to the bottom.
Recent events an knowledge prompt me to sink myself deeper in. TECUA is Tecumseh who makes air conditioner compressors. This week there is a heat wave expected and speculators appear to have known this since last week Friday June 15th. I neglected to mention that I have lost about 15% of my holdings of TECUA in the previous 3 weeks, but a heat wave suggests to me I will recover. If it lasts I may more than break even. I am definitely a gambling addict.
In other news a conservative government has been elected in Greece today. Greece should get its own reality show. Anyways NBG the National Bank of Greece had about a 90% jump between 6/14/2012 and 6/15/2012 in anticipation of election outcomes. On 6/13 it was about $1.19 at end of day 6/15 it was $1.89. I wanted to get out of my chair and kick myself, but thats how the cookie crumbles. It’s like you have a rare encounter with a lady where you meet as strangers have a great exciting conversation and then leave without getting her phone number. While were talking, I actually got that amazing woman’s number but I still blew it, now shes married with kids and I’m still kicking myself. Now I’m confuse…..oh yes! NBG and TECUH should be scooped up on Monday, if anything is left. Dump NBG on Wednesday and TECUH you can follow the following chart to determine the peak:http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index_MAX.shtml.

Somebody is going to make a load of money, but you have to be in it to win it. Get in the game. Alas, it is better to have loved and lost that have lost money.

Very superstitious

I saw Stevie Wonder on television the other day. He has a catchy a tune called “Superstitious.” That title sums up why I have been hesitant to post a new entry. It is understandable that I would be superstitious as any gambling addict would be.

I come from a environment where if you say things are getting better, you effectively just reversed whatever gains have been made by stating such. Better to keep it to yourself and don’t speak so soon. This would make it difficult to write a blog about investing. So ladies and gentlemen for tonights entertainment I will risk lucre and limb to tell you that oil will be going up again.

There is essentially one reason, that reason is Iran. The west will begin its sanctions in July of this year. Also, according to a Bloomberg article an Iranian official expected oil prices to double this summer. Just in time for the vacation season. Another observation I have made came from loosing 20% of my oil portfolio in the last month and seeing that loss reduced to around 15% in two days. Current trends persisting I will be even by this time next week. So if you are a fellow gambler and have something to wager, put it on domestic oil and hold until the first week of the embargo.

Frankly the embargo is a money making opportunity as the west will attack Iran, no matter what they do. The only events that could prevent oil from rising in July is if the debt ridden Euro-zone stops buying, or OPEC members decide to increase production. Oh! Also, Hugo Chaves is ill and the internet is buzzing about an opposition candidate. Venezuela provides something to the effect of 11% of our oil. So there you have it. Turmoil in Iran and Venezuela make it prime time to grab some cheap oil stocks.

Hey, if my superstition works the way it should, there will be no embargo, no war and no overthrow. A lot of lives will be saved.

Geeeet Ouuut

Did you ever see the episode of the Simpsons where the house dislikes the family so much it starts to say “geeet ouuut”. This is a spin off of the movie Amityville Horror. Correction, thats a spin off of the current market.
I am going to eat my own words, and advise you to get out. I lost a good hunk of change but is better than loosing it all. The fear-mongers were off on the timing but not on the concept. If you still want to stay in the game I suggest investing in Asia. Some growth can still be had there as the majority of the population lives in poverty but the government has a good amount of capital. Also Africa has a growing demand for goods and room to expand. All of a sudden we are interested in the human rights of the people of Africa because we realize if they are starving we can make private profit on farm goods through governmental food relief but we can also bring up the standard of living and sell luxuries. The money is made in the growth segment. Japan which is experiencing stagnation in almost every facet is not profitable. Focus on the BRIC nations but I would add Africa to that and take out Russia, and India. Basically stay as far away from Europe as possible.
There are a large number of Chinese stocks under $2 dollars that can make a good return. The small rebound in the market today depicted that some money can be made, but not in Europe or America. Unfortunately I did not have any Chinese stock in my possession, but after selling at a loss I expect to rebound by acquiring some Chinese stocks. I have yet to find an African stock, but I will find it, and there I will also find profit.
Its the basic premise that what goes up must come down. We have reached a pinnacle of sorts on the level of Japan. All the roads are done, all the sewers, all the water, how many municipal busy-work jobs can the nation afford. Also how can businesses afford to pay/keep people at living wages, when buying a $30k every few years is considered just getting by. In developing nations, there is greater profit margin and thats the bottom line.
I’m a patriot. When I make a profit investing in China, I will spend it locally. Its a little more complicated but I wanted to end on a positive note.

Doom and gloom

What does the word gloom mean anyways. Sounds like fun to me. Gloom sounds like glow or glee. Anyways The stock market went bunji jumping this week. I didn’t buy on Monday as the’re was no good news. I didn’t buy on Tuesday because that wasn’t any better. I bought on Wednesday and by evening I was doing well. On Thursday I was kicking myself. Now today, Friday I am still kicking myself. I decided to buy on Wednesday while the two financial heads of the whole country were in a rare occasion together testifying before congress, causing everyone to run for them there hills. I failed to keep up to date on current events. If I knew those two were going to be speaking I would have waited until Thursday or even next week.

Other than Heckle and Jekyl speaking before Congress, the writers at Bloomberg used their influence to cloud men’s minds. One hour they said the housing market is down. Then the housing market eh, not so bad. Then its terrible. Then is great. I couldn’t make heads or tails of it. Bloomberg has to do better as one of the favored sources for financial news.

At the end of the day, I have no one to blame. I should have known Geitner and Bernanke would be speaking. I stepped out of my energy comfort zone this week and played with: CHLN, IOT, PEIX, ROIAK, VVTV. A mix of advertising, energy and housing(in China). Next week if things turn around I have a strong interest in GLGL and FCEL. The former is a producer of a natural sweetener that diabetics can use, the latter a Connecticut maker of fuel cells that run on gas(tre cool).

There is still some lucrative news. Israel has determined they can strike Iran without much blowback. I paid $4.05 for gas yesterday so I will probably revisit my domestic oil drilling companies WRES, GBR and PSTR. With sanctions getting tighter and the dogs of war rabidly foaming at the mouth, domestic fuel producers will get a lot of interest. See you at the crap table.

It’s Alive!

My Frankenstien masterpiece of a strategy actually went as planned. The universe has aligned and all is well. Made a bit on BPOP, and just broke even on PEIX. Oil is rallying and with that ethanol, the petroleum additive. Didn’t expect a rebound it this soon, but I;m not complaining. All the hubub about Iran is forgotten. NetanYoohoo went back to making chocolate milk, or whatever he does and were now distracted by the other war, the “good war” that recently ended.
Now I must analyze the headlines and determine a pick for Monday/Tuesday. Tuesday seems a better day to get an idea of how things will be going for the rest of the week. The relative inactivity of the stock market during the weekend gives investors a Monday morning hangover of sorts. They need a extra day just to get their bearings together. Sunday/Monday make some picks. Tuesday make some acquisitions. If this go well out by Thursday/Friday. Thats relatively a long time compared to day traders but I an still learning. The Izombies got their fix this Friday so I expect sellers of I-related apps. services and products to make some revenue this week. Now to determine who those entities are.

I can’t complain.

I can complain about a loss but what difference will it make the money is gone. At the same time I made money to balance out the loss so why complain. A yin yang portfolio was my approach for this week with BPOP and PEIX. BPOP is what we know commonly as Banco Popular, which provides banking services in Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic. PEIX is a ethanol producer. Ethanol is used as a unleaded fuel additive and possibly in various manufacturing applications. Therefore every time you head to the pump your not only putting in petroleum distillate your also putting in ethanol. vehicles which accept “Flex Fuel” can accept higher concentrations of Ethanol than engines not similarly equipped.
Thanks for the science lesson. That was just to indicate that I have invested in finanacials while investing in energy. I bought BPOP at 1.96 and sold at $2.11. Only 30 minutes later it went up to $2.21. I wanted to kick myself but I was sitting down. Better safe than sorry though. In not so good news I bought PEIX at 1.14 and it dropped to 1.11, loosing 3 cents.
So now I’m stuck with PEIX until everyone gets scared. Which will probably not happen since Saudi Arabia has decide to increase crude output to compensate for the decreased access to Iranian oil. I will not bother to check Google maps, but I suspect Saudi Arabia is a little farther away than Iran. I expect prices of gas to still rise. The weather has been nice and consumers must have their products. They must get to the malls, they must go on dates, they must buy gas. If I was a smart man I would double my ownership of PEIX and hold to $1.20.

The black line indicates where $1.20 lies. So you can see from the chart this is a realistic expectation. I also expect the stock to go up as to fall below $1 is to be de-listed from Nasdaq. Not only embarrassing experience but one that can scare customers away and engage the stock in a freefall.
In the meantime I will be watching the news for the next hype. As a side note, the new Ipad will debut in 48hours. Today Apple stock went up $19 but I don’t care, as I don’t buy $600 shares. only $3 or less.

Oh, Me of little faith

I have been really quiet the past few days. Lost a lot of money. My forcasting seems flawed right now. I’ll be the first to turn tail on my own strategy, not! I’m still in a holding pattern. This morning I got some lucrative news. Benyamin NetanYooohoo is coming to town to give the US president his orders on how to proceed regarding Iran. Days before the president made a speech to a zi0nis7 organization, assuring them that hes not a wimp when it comes to war, only a wimp for their special interest(s). So I expect all my domestic petroleum and natural gas stocks to go up again, after a disappointing week.

Additionally CNN Money released an article reflecting my current investment strategy. See the article here: http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2012/markets/1203/gallery.oil-gas-investments/index.html

Though my stock picks are not popular brand names, they are cheap, so investors will find them. I expect Mr. NetanYoohoo to drum up support for killing people and the president will  be “in lockstep” with whatever he is told to do. During that time I hope to buy some additional domestic oil stocks and cash out with at least a 20% return. I only wanted to hold the shares for a week, but Ben Bernanke had other plans, and caused them to tank. So I’ll just have to wait out the warmongers’ posturing.

Its funny, last week one guy named Ben made me loose money and this week a guy named Ben is going to make me money. The balance is restored.

In other news the government is not going to only make the foreclosure process easier its going to give a financial hand to the bulk property buyers. You know, the guys who fix the prices, so that regular folks cant afford housing. So I expect like I mention before a rebound in the financials. The will provide these bulk buyers with the buying power while people who want to buy a house will be taking out bigger loans. These rundown abandoned and cheap houses will need repair so expect a raise in home depot, lowes and ace hardware. Those shares maybe pricey so its best to find a supplier’s stock. Best if the supplier provides good for all three companies. This winter has been extra nice, so winter supplies sales were probably poor. Lets say maybe a %5 at least, jump in the value of those companies between today and the 1st day of spring, better yet, by April 15th.

And the band played on

I think it was a song reference or some kind of reference from the Titanic. Either way you get the drift. Though the DOW and the value of gold fell yesterday(Feb 29th 2012) today things bounced back. Just like the band I stuck it in there and went down with the ship. That was yesterday. Today things rebounded somewhat. This just proves my thoery of riding the wave in the bad time. Fortunately people ignored Ben Bernanke’s rantings and acknowledged him as the groundhog he is. soon enough he will go back to whatever he does during the day, like play golf or meticulously trim his Freud-style beard, who knows.

If tends continue PSTR, WRES and LOAN will regain the glory of last week. I originally intended to hold them for 4 days but I wasnt paying enough attention to the news. I didn’t see Ben coming, didn’t hear any announcements that a hearing was scheduled. He doesn’t deserve all the blame, PSTR and WRES were wobbling a little before he spoke. Too many celebrities and public figures passed away this week, overshadowing the cost of gas. So the panic diminished and  there is a collective mourning going on now, which is understandable. It makes you consider your own mortality and that of your loved ones. Soon spending will resume, and record companies will be profiting form the royalties and licensing of artists they had severed ties with years ago. I went off on a tangent.

The Fed chairman in my opinion had good news. Though he did not announce another QE, I didn’t hear of an expected raise in interest rates. So now money is still cheap. Considering the idiom that money makes money its still prime time to make money using cheap money. What more do you want? Low interest rates should be good enough for everyone.

The only thing that may cause some short term disturbance are  the depressed Wall Street peoples whose bonuses were diminished this year. They might not be so risky now that they don’t have that bonus to rely on for that planned  trip or home improvement. I don’t want sad investors out there. The happier they are the more risks they take and the more responsive they are to the butterfly effect of the consumer flapping its wings.  I want to tell them “dont worry about a thing…every little things gonna be alright,” just ride the wave.

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Petit doomsday

Today the Federal Reserve chairman opened his mouth and threw a fly in the ointment. Come on, even gold lost value. Gold is the doomsday, fear-mongers’ favorite thing to buy. The more people are scared the more money they make on gold. I cant afford gold shares so I’m more of a gas shortage fear-monger. Even though the CIA has said Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, the media keeps saying that they are. Who listens to politicians anyway, unless they’ve been caught in some kinda scandal. I digress.

My picks earlier this week all flopped, I lost a good hunk a change but, I expect fear of Iran and the heightening of travel to bring me to where I want to be. I learned a lot this week. Gained some gray hairs, but I’m sticking to my guns and riding the wave. I’m down now, but tomorrow is another day.

As I said yesterday housing is going to rebound. Not for the regular guy but for the banks, developers and property managers. There was an article on MSN condemning Zillow.com. I see that as counter intelligence  to discourage the regualr guy from grabbing up the cheap houses on the market. There’s nothing wring with Zillow or Trulia, but someone got paid to say so, and of course the comment trolls and mercenaries followed in kind. LOAN lost $0.03 since my suggestion. PSTR and WRES both involved in crude and NG exploration fell almost $0.25 each. So I’m riding the wave until the news of high gas prices comes back around. Misery loves company so though I am disappointed in my pics, I wasn’t the only one who got soaked. Most people were too distracted by the Oscars this week and whatever else was going on TMZ/Extra to be afraid of gas prices.

I’m going to see if this video from Bloomberg will embed. If it does see below……………didn’t work so just clack the link below.

http://bloom.bg/zdOlcO#ooid=huY3VtMzppbeKWhQRafFRiJnrU0xB-e2

Growing up, Bloomberg’s Portfolio Tracker and MarketWatch’s VSE

When I was in elementary school in the early 90s our class participated in the Stock Exchange Game. At the time I found it boring and another thing to learn that I would never use. I have the certificate of participation somewhere around here.

Later in High School we played the gave again briefly. Using the NY times to monitor our stock pics and learning about what the symbols meant. I didn’t pay it any more attention in high school than I did in elementary. Many moons later in college I again participated in a stock exchange competition, which had a price of $100. This is where I actually had some interest as there was some money motivation. We used a web site called Virtual Stock Exchange, which is a part of MarketWatch.com. Out of the maybe 30 participants I think I cane around 7th, so I didn’t win the 100 bucks but I suppose the intent was to just get us familiar.

Currently, as you can see by the existence of this blog, I have become more interested in the market.  It’s not a game now as the money isn’t virtual, its my money. Not not a especially good time to learn from scratch, but it would seem that life has lead me to this point. I have really been playing this game since elementary school.

I logged into my old VSE account and use it to monitor my stocks, as the site I use to actually do trading is basic. No information on volume, P/E, no charts(only a pie chart). Its basically design for a investor that does not plan on making multiple trades, and isn’t constantly monitoring the values. So moving to another service is something I am in the process of doing.

In the mean time I have found VSE useful and also Bloomberg Portfolio Tracker. VSE gives all the information you need, but Bloomberg gives the same and additional features such as the ability to draw trend lines. You may be saying, [well I already have that]. Thats fine, but its news to this writer. Using trend lines doesn’t conform to my philosophy of monitoring the news and current events but if your dealing with a stock that exists in some kind of vacuum I suppose a trend line would be a good crystal ball. I find the trendlines useful when combined with the monitoring of current events. As a result I have downgraded my expectations for WRES, PSTR, and LOAN to $4.15, $4.20, and $1.18 respectively. Comparing to the values on the days I made the suggestions that would result in a gain of $0.25, a loss of $-0.09 and a gain of $0.05 respectively. Since warren Buffet recently fessed up to his poor reading of the ouija board, I guess I can fess up too. Still, if holding equal numbers of shares in the three aforementioned stocks, that would give a profit of $0.0833 average per share. Which is nothing to write home about but a W is a W.

Below is a screenshot of Bloomberg Portfolio Tracker: